The special election in Georgia's 6th Congressional district is nine days away. This election is to elect a representative to replace Tom Price the new Secretary of Health and Human Services. This blog has noted before that this is a republican strong hold and has been since 1979. This district was once represented by Newt Gingrich.
Many have made this election a referendum on trump. Others are looking for it to be a model for how Democrats can move forward in future elections to change the balance of power in Congress. In reality, what this election will be is either a new seat for Democrats in the House or a retained seat for Republicans. If Jon Ossoff, The Democratic front runner does win this seat, Democrats will make much of it and Republicans will diminish its meaning. I suggest that Democrats keep a low profile, if the seat is won. Certainly we can be glad, but let's not gloat. Gloating energizes your opponent.
I would also point out that this election is abnormal in many ways and therefore may be somewhat informative, but should not be seen as the be all and end all of strategy formulation for the 2018 mid term elections. This election may not have a large portion of the districts electorate show up at the polls. After all, it is an out of the ordinary date. But if there is a large outpouring of voters and if Ossoff wins on the first ballot, that would certainly indicate the mood of the electorate in this reliably republican district.
Another factor in this election is that there is a large number of college students registered to vote in this district. That may or may not be a factor.
Something that has been happening during this campaign process has been the amount of money that Ossoff and Democratic organizations have been able to raise in this short period of time. I am solicited many times per day. I'm okay with this, although I can easily see how some people would feel guilty if they could not respond to each email with a donation. I am clear about what I can contribute, and when. There are some emails that are worded in such a way as to try to make the reader feel guilty if the do not donate. I believe this is counter productive and will ultimately backfire on Democrats if they continue to use this method.
This morning, while reading about this upcoming election, I saw the following in an NBC article on the net:
SANDY SPRINGS, Georgia — Amy King, an accountant in this Atlanta suburb, said she's always been a Republican.
But when a Republican, Judson Hill — the first candidate to enter the first competitive congressional race of Donald Trump's presidency — knocked on her door Tuesday evening, King told him she was considering voting Democrat or just skipping the upcoming special congressional election.
"I've been thinking about how no one in the Republican Party is standing up to what is crazy," she said while standing her driveway, mentioning some of Trump's controversial Cabinet appointments and statements.
"It's immensely shaken my confidence in the Republican Party," added King, who declined to say who she voted for in the presidential election.
Now this is anecdotal, but it may be very telling. Ms. King may represent an important demographic throughout the south, I don't know. But, if she does, than here will be something that Democrats can tie their boat to; educated conservative republican women in suburban metropolitan areas. It seems that King has a conscience and follows it.
This election is worth watching. The seat may be claimed or it may go to a June run off. There is information to be gained, but whatever information is gained is not written in stone. There is a book that was written in the 1990s for management training entitled Who Moved My Cheese and this is the concept that Democrats need to embrace. Things change.
No comments:
Post a Comment